Wednesday, September 6, 2023

atlantic-tropical-storm-hurricane-season-climate

 

Tropical Storm Lee is expected to rapidly intensify into an ‘extremely dangerous’ hurricane in the Atlantic by this weekend

CNN — 

Tropical Storm Lee is expected to rapidly intensify into an “extremely dangerous” hurricane in the Atlantic Ocean by this weekend, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday as the season approaches its typical early September peak.

Lee could become a hurricane Wednesday then a major category 3 storm or stronger by Friday, with the Leeward Islands of the Caribbean feeling its impacts over the weekend, forecasters said.

Its winds could reach 150 mph on Sunday evening, according to the hurricane center.

The tropical storm is now churning maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and moving about 1,230 miles east of the Leeward Islands, which include the Virgin Islands, Saint Martin, and Antigua and Barbuda, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 11 p.m. ET Tuesday update.

Though its exact path is still uncertain, Lee will track generally west-northwest across the tropical Atlantic through the end of the week and make a close pass at the Leeward Islands over the weekend as a hurricane.

But any shifts along its track as it nears the islands could bring more of an impact there and beyond. Anyone in the eastern Caribbean – including the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola – as well as the Bahamas will need to keep a close eye on the forecast.


It’s too soon to know whether this system will directly impact the US mainland, but even if the hurricane stays out at sea, dangerous surf and rip currents could once again threaten the East Coast. One person was killed in a rip current in New Jersey over the Labor Day weekend.

Lee became a tropical storm Tuesday after forming earlier in the morning in the central tropical Atlantic and moving through extremely warm waters, according to the National Hurricane Center, which predicts the storm will strengthen rapidly.

Rapid intensification is when a storm’s winds strengthen quickly over a short amount of time. Scientists have defined it as a wind speed increase of at least 35 mph in 24 hours or less – a phenomenon aided by warm ocean waters.

As Lee moves steadily west-northwest this week, it will enter conditions increasingly favorable for strengthening: Plenty of moisture, low wind shear and abnormally warm water stretch nearly the entire length of the potential cyclone’s projected path.

“The NHC intensity forecast is extremely bullish for a first forecast, but remarkably lies below the intensity consensus,” the National Hurricane Center’s storm discussion said. “All indications are that the depression will become a strong hurricane by the end of the forecast period.”

Lee would be the fourth to reach that status this season, following Don, Franklin and Idalia. The hurricane is expected to grow significantly stronger by the weekend and is forecast to become the season’s third Category 3 or stronger hurricane as the weekend begins.

Sunday, September 10, is the climatological peak of Atlantic hurricane season, when the basin is at its busiest on average. A flurry of tropical activity surrounding this date is not out of the ordinary, but it can turn hazardous fast.

The 2023 Atlantic season has already been busy: It is tracking above average for a number of different metrics including number of named storms, number of hurricanes and number of major hurricanes, according to Philip Klotzbach a research scientist at Colorado State University.

enrique-tarrio-proud-boys-jan-6-sentence

 Enrique Tarrio, the former national chairman of the Proud Boys, has been sentenced to 22 years in prison for his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. Tarrio was one of six Proud Boys leaders to be charged for conspiring to stop the certification of the 2020 presidential election results in Congress. Of them, he has received the longest prison sentence to date.

Tarrio's originally scheduled sentencing hearing was postponed last week after Judge Timothy Kelly fell ill.

Prosecutors asked for a 33-year sentence. Tarrio's attorneys, however, pleaded with Judge Kelly to impose a sentence of no longer than 15 years.

So far, Tarrio's co-defendants in the Proud Boys seditious conspiracy case have been sentenced to prison stays far shorter than what the government requested of the court.

Of the Jan. 6 rioters, the head of the Seattle chapter of the Proud Boys and Tarrio's co-defendant Ethan Nordean and Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes, who was convicted in a separate case, received the longest sentences so far with 18 years.

Nordean was sentenced last Friday.

Tarrio, Nordean, Joseph Biggs and Zachary Rehl were all convicted for seditious conspiracy and other crimes in May. A fifth defendant, Dominic Pezzola, was acquitted on that charge but found guilty of assaulting, resisting or impeding certain officers and robbery involving government property.

Like Tarrio, prosecutors wanted to see Biggs get 33 years in prison. However, Judge Kelly gave him 17 years.

Tarrio was also convicted for obstructing an official proceeding, conspiracy to prevent an officer from discharging their duties, obstruction of law enforcement during a civil disorder and destruction of government property with value of over $1,000.

Tarrio wasn't at the actual Capitol riot because he had been arrested days earlier for setting fire to a Black Lives Matter banner, stolen from Asbury United Methodist Church in Washington, D.C., and was ordered out of the city.

Prosecutors say from a hotel outside of D.C., Tarrio directed his Proud Boys to attack the Capitol without him.

Tarrio's attorney have said he wasn't in contact with any members of the organization during the riot and pointed to Nordean and Biggs as being the orchestrators of the riot. Further, they said, "Participating in a plan for the Proud Boys to protest on January 6 is not the same as directing others on the ground to storm the Capitol by any means necessary."

Extremism experts say the Proud Boys likely will feel little impact from these sentences, however.

"They remain active organizing, recruiting," said Cassie Miller, senior research analyst at the Southern Poverty Law Center. "And this authoritarian movement that they are a part of has continued to grow, as well."

Miller said that unlike many other paramilitary organizations, the group has grown in both membership and number of chapters since January 6th. She said this is in large part because the far-right group has pivoted away from national organizing to local activism on issues such as the restriction of LGBTQ and abortion rights.

chiefs-te-travis-kelce-hyperextended-knee-during-practice-status-tbd-for-kickoff

 Another Kansas City Chiefs star is in doubt to play in Thursday night's season opener against the Detroit Lions.

Tight end Travis Kelce hyperextended his knee during practice, head coach Andy Reid told reporters on Tuesday. NFL Network Insiders Ian Rapoport and Tom Pelissero reported Tuesday afternoon that Kelce is believed to have avoided a long-term knee injury, but his status for Thursday is in doubt. Once swelling in Kelce's knee decreases, his status for Week 1 should become clearer, Rapoport and Pelissero added.

Kelce was listed as a limited participant in Tuesday's practice.

Kelce, who hasn't missed a game due to injury since 2013, absent for any period of time would be massive for the Super Bowl champs.

The tight end generated 110 receptions (third-most in the NFL), 1,338 yards (eighth), and 12 touchdowns (second) in 2022. Since Patrick Mahomes took over under center in 2018, Kelce has generated 493 catches and 6,298 receiving yards, the most by any QB-pass catcher duo over that span. Earning eight straight Pro Bowl appearances, Kelce has led the Chiefs in receptions in six of the past seven seasons.

The Chiefs entered the offseason with questions once again at receiver, with young players like Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore expected to take on bigger roles. The safety net to all the WR discussion was the assumption that Kelce would continue to be Mahomes' security blanket and big-play target.

Now, two days from the 2023 Kickoff Game, that assumption is in question.

With the Chris Jones situation still unre  solved, it's possible K.C. could be without two of its biggest stars come Thursday.

Noah Gray and null are the tight ends in line if Kelce misses time.